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16

Beggars Rock

7yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 102

Galway · Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner for Declan Queally. Ran his best race for a while over hurdles when beaten just under 9¼ lengths at Wexford in mid-May. Moved through the race well on that occasion and is weighted to go close on just his fourth start for a capable yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA105 @ Punchestown 12/01/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 105 · 2m4f124y Sft 151 · below its mark12/01/2025 · OR 105 par12/01105OR 105C0 @ Thurles 06/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m4f176y Goo 166BHA112 @ Tramore 14/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 112 · 2m5f180y Yie 166 · below its mark14/04/2025 · OR 112 par14/04112OR 112BHA112 @ Kilbeggan 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 112 · 2m4f90y Goo 166 · beat its mark16/05/2025 · OR 112 parBHA116 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 116 · 3m1f24y Goo 156 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 116 par9/06116OR 116BHA116 @ Cork 03/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 116 · 2m4f Yie 153 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 116 parBHA112 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 112 · 2m5f45y Yie 152 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 112 par4/04112OR 112BHA110 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 110 · 3m2f50y Goo 157 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 110 parBHA103 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 103 · 3m Goo 160 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 103 par16/05103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 7th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1036th6th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA1103rd3rd0
2026-04-04FairyhouseBHA1126th6th0
2026-01-14Fairyhouse?0
2026-01-03CorkBHA1163rd3rd0
2025-07-30GalwayBHA1050

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0116/054/0416/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/202512th4/179%27%-0.52
06/03/20253rd11/271%80%+0.09
14/04/20252nd13/266%92%+0.26
16/05/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
09/06/20257th5/174%57%-0.17
03/01/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
04/04/20266th20/10%69%+0.69
12/04/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
16/05/20266th12/137%58%+0.21