17
Caher Roes Den
8yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 102
Galway · Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | BHA101 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-15 | Southwell | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-01-17 | Market Rasen | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-10-17 | Wincanton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-02-21 | Ludlow | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-02-06 | Market Rasen | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2023 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 06/02/2024 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/02/2024 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 17/10/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 17/01/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |