11
Elusive Ogie
5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 113
Galway · Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y
#14
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA113 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA114 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA115 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Clonmel | BHA116 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 18
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/05/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 05/04/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |