13
Forceonmyown
7yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 107
Galway · Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y
#15
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | BHA109 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Leopardstown | BHA110 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Punchestown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-01-13 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2024 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/12/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 13/01/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 03/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 14/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |