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4yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 109

Galway · Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y

#13

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 4-y-o proved a different model than in bumpers when successful on hurdling debut at Kilbeggan in May. That form was subsequently franked but he found life tougher in a course novice on Monday. Longer trip will need to bring about significant improvement now switched to a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 1572/03C?C0 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR - · 2m132y Yie 16428/04C?C8 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 2m3f20y Goo 15831/05C8C8 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 112 · 2m130y Gd 161 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 112 par27/07C8OR 112projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Galway?6th6th0
2026-05-31Kilbeggan?1st1st0
2026-04-28Punchestown?13th13th0
2026-03-02Leopardstown?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0328/0431/0527/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20267th11/271%14%-0.57
28/04/202613th66/10%33%+0.33
31/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
27/07/20266th66/10%50%+0.50