6
Rocky's Howya
10yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 116
Galway · Kenny Galway Peugeot Handicap Hurdle · 3m 60y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA120 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA117 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2025 | 15th | 11/1 | 42% | 39% | -0.03 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/06/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |