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15

Gorthill

10yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100

Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y

#14

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★ Timeform

Commentary

Hunter chase winner who has run well under Rules on occasion. 11/1, first run since leaving Mrs Caroline McCaldin when fifth of 8 in similar event at Downpatrick (29f, good to soft) in May. This looks a difficult ask back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C11.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Downpatrick 20/03/2022 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m1f65y Goo 16820/03C?C8 @ Downpatrick 19/05/2023 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 2m7f110y Goo 1684 @ Perth 11/06/2023 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f35y GS 15511/064C0 @ Downpatrick 24/05/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 3m4f165y Goo 168C0 @ Downpatrick 23/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 3m4f165y Gd 16823/05C?C0 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m4f71y Goo 154BHA112 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 112 · 2m3f100y Goo 168 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 112 par14/07112OR 112BHA110 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 110 · 3m4f165y Goo 168 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 110 par22/05110OR 110projClass-projected finish: 17th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA1105th5th0
2025-07-14DownpatrickBHA1126th6th0
2025-07-03Bellewstown?5th5th0
2025-05-23Downpatrick?2nd2nd0
2024-05-24Downpatrick?2nd2nd0
2024-05-03Punchestown?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0324/0514/0722/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 18
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20226th80/10%44%+0.44
19/05/20231st11/271%100%+0.29
11/06/20234th7/163%57%-0.06
24/05/20242nd11/142%88%+0.45
23/05/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
03/07/20255th66/10%0%0.00
14/07/20256th4/179%17%-0.62
22/05/20265th11/142%43%+0.01