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3

Journey So Far

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 112

Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y

#6

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 6-y-o who switched to a powerful owner prior to opening his account in 10-runner beginners chase at Tramore (2¾m, good, 11/4) in May by 13 lengths from A Snow White Park, unchallenged. Has to be taken seriously back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 23/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m Sft 16223/01C8C8 @ Naas 23/02/2025 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR - · 1m7f110y Sft 166C8 @ Limerick 23/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 16623/03C8BHA96 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 24 · OR 96 · 2m Hvy 164 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 96 parC0 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 2m5f152y Yie 16629/11C?C0 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m55y Sft 166BHA108 @ Thurles 05/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 108 · 2m2f Sft 164 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 108 par5/02108OR 108BHA96 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 96 · 3m Goo 166 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 96 parBHA106 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 106 · 2m5f180y Goo 166 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 106 par29/05106OR 106projClass-projected finish: 5th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-29TramoreBHA1061st1st0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA966th6th0
2026-02-05ThurlesBHA1089th9th0
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?7th7th0
2025-11-29Fairyhouse?12th12th0
2025-11-22Punchestown?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0116/115/0229/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20258th3/184%22%-0.62
23/02/20259th150/10%58%+0.58
23/03/20255th50/10%75%+0.75
16/11/20259th20/10%65%+0.65
29/11/202512th100/10%21%+0.21
13/12/20257th400/10%50%+0.50
05/02/20269th10/147%47%-0.01
13/05/20266th7/163%71%+0.07
29/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14