14
Jukebox Johnny
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102
Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA100 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gowran Park | BHA104 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA105 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | BHA105 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Cork | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.13 |
| 08/11/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 32% | +0.16 |
| 23/11/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |