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5

Lawful Ruler

7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 109

Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y

#7

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3m Cork maiden hunter in April, showing a willing attitude (may not have collected had the favourite avoided error). 100/1, pulled up in novice chase at Wexford (19f, good to soft) in June. Questions to answer on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m7f150y Yie 16829/03C8C8 @ Cork 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 3m100y Goo 1686/04C8C0 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m5f160y Goo 16820/04C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 18
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-30Wexford?0
2026-04-20Tramore?7th7th0
2026-04-06Cork?1st1st0
2026-03-29Downpatrick?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/036/0420/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20263rd40/10%75%+0.75
06/04/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
20/04/20267th12/137%50%+0.13