10
Le Grand Vert
10yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 105
Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA82 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-26 | Cartmel | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA82 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-10 | Sedgefield | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 53% | -0.12 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |