18
Mistyburn
6yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 87
Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#16
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | BHA92 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA90 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | BHA89 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Punchestown | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 18/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 02/12/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 20/12/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 250/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |