6
Sammy Smart
10yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 108
Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#9
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA111 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | BHA111 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Navan | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 18
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 03/03/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 29/04/2025 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/01/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 42% | -0.21 |