16
Saunton Surf
7yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 100
Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA99 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Downpatrick | BHA99 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA99 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | BHA100 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Naas | BHA102 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 13/12/2024 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 19/02/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 17/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |