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Smallcraftwarning
9yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100
Galway · Kinlay Hostel Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#8
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA96 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA96 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA95 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA103 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | BHA103 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 18
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 93% | +0.27 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 94% | +0.18 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 09/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 53% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 94% | +0.52 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |