1

Blood Destiny

7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 150

Galway · Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 2f 54y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very smart chaser at best but inconsistent. Ran well when 9 lengths second of 6 to Jesse Evans at Listowel last time, upsides when bad mistake last. Pulled up both previous handicap starts off similar marks, but this represents a drop in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Fairyhouse 21/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 152 · 2m3f170y Sft 161 · below its mark21/04/2025 · OR 152 par21/041OR 1521 @ Killarney 12/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 152 · 2m4f100y Yie 160 · below its mark12/05/2025 · OR 152 parBHA152 @ Listowel 02/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 152 · 2m3f Goo 156 · beat its mark02/06/2025 · OR 152 par2/06152OR 152BHA152 @ Galway 03/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 152 · 2m6f111y Sft 157 · below its mark03/08/2025 · OR 152 par1 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 152 · 2m4f Yie 160 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 152 par4/101OR 1521 @ Naas 22/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 152 · 2m Hvy 155 · beat its mark22/02/2026 · OR 152 par1 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 152 · 2m3f180y Yie 161 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 152 par6/041OR 1521 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 152 · 2m98y Yie 166 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 152 parBHA150 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 150 · 2m3f Yie 166 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 150 par1/06150OR 150projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-01ListowelBHA1502nd2nd0
2026-04-28Punchestown15th5th0
2026-04-06Fairyhouse12nd2nd0
2026-02-22Naas11st1st0
2026-01-14Fairyhouse10
2025-10-04Gowran Park13rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/043/086/041/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength87%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20253rd3/184%67%-0.18
12/05/20252nd2/189%83%-0.06
02/06/20251st1/899%100%+0.01
03/08/20252nd8/1196%67%-0.30
04/10/20253rd5/287%50%-0.37
22/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
06/04/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
28/04/20265th80/10%0%0.00
01/06/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02