7
Drumgill
7yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 125
Galway · Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 2f 54y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA128 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA132 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gowran Park | BHA134 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 14/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 02/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |