4
Le Nez Creux
5yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 132
Galway · Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 2f 54y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Ayr | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Auteuil | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 02/03/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 03/04/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |