8
Lisleigh Lad
8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 123
Galway · Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 2f 54y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C11.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA117 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | BHA117 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA117 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | BHA118 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Leopardstown | BHA115 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Thurles | BHA117 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 21/04/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 81% | +0.55 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |