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6

The Banger Doyle

10yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 129

Galway · Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 2f 54y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful chaser at his best but without a win since autumn 2024. Turned in best effort for some time when 8½ lengths second of 9 to Femme Magnifique at Killarney 16 days ago. Dropped another 1 lb on the back of that and entitled to be thereabouts if giving his running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tramore 14/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 76 · 2m Yie 154 · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 76 par14/08C8OR 76BHA140 @ Listowel 21/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 140 · 2m1f150y Yie 166 · below its mark21/09/2025 · OR 140 parBHA139 @ Cork 12/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 139 · 2m1f140y Gd 163 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 139 par12/10139OR 139BHA137 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 137 · 2m Hvy 162 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 137 parBHA111 @ Thurles 19/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 111 · 2m109y Sft 167 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 111 par19/02111OR 1111 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 134 · 2m4f100y Goo 154 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 134 parC8 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 74 · 1m7f GF 161 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 74 par18/06C8OR 74BHA74 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 74 · 2m Goo 142 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 74 parBHA130 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 130 · 2m1f Goo 158 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 130 par17/07130OR 130projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17KillarneyBHA1302nd2nd0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA743rd3rd0
2026-06-18Leopardstown?3rd3rd0
2026-05-11Killarney17th7th0
2026-02-19ThurlesBHA11113th13th0
2025-11-08Gowran ParkBHA1376th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/088/1118/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20252nd9/276%89%+0.13
21/09/20258th8/158%42%-0.16
12/10/20256th11/142%29%-0.14
08/11/20256th33/10%50%+0.50
19/02/202613th22/10%25%+0.25
11/05/20267th50/10%14%+0.14
18/06/20263rd14/126%86%+0.59
07/07/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
17/07/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51