11
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10yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 121
Galway · Lord Hemphill Memorial Handicap Chase · 2m 2f 54y
#10
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA123 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA122 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA127 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Gowran Park | BHA123 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 61% | +0.03 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 25/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |