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City House

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 92

Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f

#13

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourteen runs since last win in 2025 but some good runs in defeat for Ado McGuinness this year, including fourth of 15 in handicap at Cork (7f, good) in June. Left with too much to do over an extended 6f at the Curragh last time but others still make greater appeal for win purposes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA100 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 100 · 7f Std 142 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 100 par16/01100OR 100BHA99 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 99 · 5f Std 138 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 99 parBHA96 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 96 · 6f Std 137 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 96 par20/0296OR 962 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 96 · 6f Std 127 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 96 parBHA94 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 94 · 5f205y Gd 134 · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 94 par27/0494OR 942 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 94 · 7f127y Gd 129 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 94 parBHA95 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 22 · OR 95 · 6f Gd 136 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 95 par23/0595OR 95BHA95 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 95 · 7f Gd 130 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 95 parBHA94 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 94 · 6f63y Goo 132 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 94 par18/0794OR 94projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18CurraghBHA9411th11th0
2026-06-14CorkBHA954th4th0
2026-05-23CurraghBHA958th8th0
2026-05-06Chester24th4th0
2026-04-27NaasBHA945th5th0
2026-04-03Newcastle212th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/013/0423/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20267th14/126%0%-0.26
06/02/20264th12/137%0%-0.37
20/02/20262nd40/10%89%+0.89
03/04/202612th33/10%15%+0.15
27/04/20265th11/142%64%+0.22
06/05/20264th20/10%75%+0.75
23/05/20268th20/10%67%+0.67
14/06/20264th18/15%79%+0.73
18/07/202611th10/147%47%0.00