11
Dark Ace
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 92
Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA93 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA89 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newbury | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Dundalk | BHA79 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 87% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 53% | -0.03 |