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3

Dorset

3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 102

Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

200/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fourth in the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh 12 days ago and was used as a pacemaker in the Sussex Stakes earlier in the week. Went hard there and has a mark that demands improvement now contesting a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Goodwood 29/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f Gd 12929/0711 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 103 · 7f Yie 131 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 103 parBHA103 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 30 · OR 103 · 7f Sft 131 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 103 par27/09103OR 1031 @ Leopardstown 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 103 · 7f30y Yie 131 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 103 par1 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 106 · 7f42y Goo 131 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 106 par12/041OR 1061 @ ParisLongchamp 10/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 105 · 7f209y Sft 128 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 104 · 7f GF 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 104 par20/061OR 1041 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 103 · 7f GF 129 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 102 · 1m Goo 128 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 102 par29/071OR 102projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Goodwood112th12th0
2026-07-19Curragh14th4th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot19th9th0
2026-05-10ParisLongchamp18th8th0
2026-04-12Leopardstown17th7th0
2025-10-18Leopardstown11st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0718/1020/0629/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20255th13/891%56%-0.36
14/09/20254th22/10%40%+0.40
27/09/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
18/10/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
12/04/20267th4/179%40%-0.39
10/05/20268th14/126%42%+0.15
20/06/20269th66/10%47%+0.47
19/07/20264th10/382%50%-0.32
29/07/202612th200/10%0%0.00