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4

Dunum

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 96

Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won the BMW Mile at this meeting last season and shaped as if needing the outing after an 11-month absence when down the field in this year's renewal earlier in the week. Will need to step forward markedly given the quick turnaround.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Curragh 30/06/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 103 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark30/06/2024 · OR 103 par30/061OR 103BHA101 @ Galway 04/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 101 · 7f Yie 137 · below its mark04/08/2024 · OR 101 par1 @ Cork 16/08/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark16/08/2024 · OR 100 par16/081OR 1001 @ Naas 18/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 96 · 7f Goo 137 · beat its mark18/05/2025 · OR 96 parBHA95 @ Cork 13/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 95 · 7f Gd 138 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 95 par13/0695OR 95BHA93 @ Galway 29/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 93 · 1m123y Yie 129 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 93 parBHA93 @ Galway 03/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 93 · 7f Sft 137 · below its mark03/08/2025 · OR 93 par3/0893OR 93BHA98 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 98 · 7f Goo 135 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 98 parBHA96 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 96 · 1m123y Yie 133 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 96 par28/0796OR 96projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28GalwayBHA9613th13th0
2025-09-13LeopardstownBHA9811th11th0
2025-08-03GalwayBHA933rd3rd0
2025-07-29GalwayBHA931st1st0
2025-06-13CorkBHA9511th11th0
2025-05-18Naas18th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0618/053/0828/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20246th6/168%29%-0.40
04/08/20243rd5/174%87%+0.13
16/08/20246th13/266%38%-0.28
18/05/20258th16/116%13%-0.03
13/06/202511th20/10%44%+0.44
29/07/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
03/08/20253rd7/282%86%+0.04
13/09/202511th11/142%33%-0.09
28/07/202613th12/137%25%-0.12