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Genuine Article

6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 87

Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f

#14

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over 8.5f here last summer before finishing a close second in Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh. Shaped as if better for the run after a 12-week break when twelfth in the BMW Mile on Tuesday but drop in trip isn't certain to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 12.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA89 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 89 · 1m98y Sft 141 · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 89 par9/0989OR 89BHA92 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 92 · 7f Sft 133 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 92 parBHA92 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 92 · 7f Yie 137 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 92 par11/1092OR 92BHA92 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 23 · OR 92 · 1m Hvy 137 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 92 parC8 @ Navan 06/12/2025 · Pos 23rd of 26 · OR - · 2m Sft 1666/12C8C8 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2025 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR - · 2m Yie 166BHA92 @ Curragh 03/04/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 92 · 1m Sft 133 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 92 par3/0492OR 92BHA90 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 90 · 7f Sft 134 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 90 parBHA87 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 87 · 1m123y Yie 124 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 87 par28/0787OR 87projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28GalwayBHA8712th12th0
2026-05-03CorkBHA905th5th0
2026-04-03CurraghBHA9215th15th0
2025-12-26Leopardstown?15th15th0
2025-12-06Navan?23th23th0
2025-11-02CurraghBHA927th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/092/113/0428/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20252nd5/493%91%-0.03
27/09/20254th4/179%73%-0.06
11/10/20255th8/158%67%+0.09
02/11/20257th14/126%73%+0.46
06/12/202523rd150/10%12%+0.12
26/12/202515th150/10%33%+0.33
03/04/202615th20/10%30%+0.30
03/05/20265th14/126%64%+0.37
28/07/202612th14/126%31%+0.05