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16

Lir Speciale

7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 87

Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 with back-to-back wins over 7f in the mud at Doncaster and has been in largely good form this season, faring best of those held up when fifth of 17 at York (7f, good to firm) last month. Didn't get home upped in trip when seventh in the BMW Mile here on Tuesday. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 72 · 7f6y Hvy 132 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 72 par25/104OR 724 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 77 · 7f6y Hvy 134 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 77 par2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 82 par28/032OR 822 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 83 · 7f127y Gd 118 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 85 · 1m Goo 118 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 85 par16/052OR 854 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 140 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par13/063OR 853 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 87 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 87 · 1m123y Yie 124 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 87 par28/0787OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28GalwayBHA877th7th0
2026-07-10York35th5th0
2026-06-13York34th4th0
2026-06-12York42nd2nd0
2026-05-16Newbury213th13th0
2026-05-06Chester23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/106/0513/0628/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
08/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
28/03/20263rd16/116%90%+0.75
06/05/20263rd18/15%83%+0.78
16/05/202613th33/10%14%+0.14
12/06/20262nd9/276%95%+0.18
13/06/20264th11/271%83%+0.12
10/07/20265th11/142%75%+0.33
28/07/20267th7/163%63%-0.01