2
Vafortino
8yo Colt · 9-12 · OR 100
Galway · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap (Premier Handicap) · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meydan | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meydan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Meydan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2024 | 18th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 59% | +0.17 |
| 18/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |