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8

Aquilla Star

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 64

Galway · Village Salthill Handicap · 1m 73y

#9

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Signed off in 2025 with improved second of 15 in nursery here (7f, heavy) in October. Stepped forward from her return when second of 9 in handicap at Ballinrobe (9.6f, good) recently, headed only in the dying strides. Not beaten far fitted with cheekpieces in race won by Jp's Express here on Friday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f26y Yie 12429/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 12910/10C8C8 @ Leopardstown 18/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f30y Yie 12818/10C8BHA63 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 63 · 7f Hvy 131 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 63 par27/1063OR 63BHA63 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m2f96y Sft 133 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 63 par20/0663OR 63BHA62 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 1m1f135y Goo 136 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 62 par20/0762OR 62BHA64 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 64 · 1m98y Yie 134 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par31/0764OR 64projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31GalwayBHA6410th10th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA622nd2nd0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA637th7th0
2025-10-27GalwayBHA632nd2nd0
2025-10-18Leopardstown?7th7th0
2025-10-10Dundalk?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0927/1031/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/09/202510th33/10%18%+0.18
10/10/202511th250/10%23%+0.23
18/10/20257th300/10%50%+0.50
27/10/20252nd50/10%93%+0.93
20/06/20267th28/10%33%+0.33
20/07/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
31/07/202610th7/163%47%-0.16