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13

Nephin Mountain

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 55

Galway · Village Salthill Handicap · 1m 73y

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form to finally get off the mark in 9-runner event at Ballinrobe (9.6f, good) by neck from Aquilla Star just under a fortnight ago, proving determined to lead again dying strides under this rider. 4 lb out of the handicap here but could well kick on now up and running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 17/07/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 6f110y Gd 12817/07C8BHA55 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 7f Sft 129 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 55 · 7f205y Sft 125 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 55 par11/0455OR 55BHA55 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 7f Sft 134 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 55 parBHA52 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 52 · 1m1f Sft 122 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 52 par11/0652OR 52BHA52 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 52 · 1m1f GF 123 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 52 parBHA52 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m2f194y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 52 par4/0752OR 52BHA51 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 51 · 1m5f Goo 125 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 51 · 1m1f135y Goo 125 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 51 par20/0751OR 51projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA511st1st0
2026-07-17Down RoyalBHA515th5th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA5214th14th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA524th4th0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA528th8th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA554th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0722/044/0720/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/202513th250/10%8%+0.08
08/04/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
11/04/202610th5/174%25%-0.49
22/04/20264th12/137%73%+0.36
11/06/20268th6/168%56%-0.12
18/06/20264th5/174%79%+0.05
04/07/202614th10/147%13%-0.34
17/07/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
20/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29