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11

Unfamiliar

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 56

Galway · Village Salthill Handicap · 1m 73y

#8

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left previous efforts well behind when opening account in 13-runner event at Limerick (7f) last month, getting first run on the placed pair. Ran badly from 3 lb out of the weights here (7f, good to soft) on Monday so needs to leave that well behind back up in trip from out of the handicap again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 12923/01C8C8 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 129C8 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 12920/02C8BHA59 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 59 · 5f205y Sft 119 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 59 parBHA57 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f Sft 131 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 57 par8/0457OR 57BHA55 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 55 · 7f Sft 134 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 55 parBHA52 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 52 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 52 par5/0652OR 52BHA52 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 52 · 7f Yie 124 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 52 parBHA56 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f Yie 119 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 56 par27/0756OR 56projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27GalwayBHA5614th14th0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA521st1st0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA525th5th0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA558th8th0
2026-04-08Gowran ParkBHA578th8th0
2026-03-22NaasBHA598th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0122/035/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20267th80/10%50%+0.50
11/02/20266th40/10%58%+0.58
20/02/20268th100/10%46%+0.46
22/03/20268th28/10%50%+0.50
08/04/20268th9/276%22%-0.54
22/04/20268th10/147%36%-0.11
05/06/20265th9/153%75%+0.22
10/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
27/07/202614th22/10%7%+0.07