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4

Caislean Gear

4yo Gelding · 11-11

Galway · Fr. Breen Memorial (Pro/Am) Flat Race · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on his debut promise at the second time of asking when dictating to land a Killarney bumper by 1½ lengths. Unlikely to live with the Mullins hotpot but has solid claims to be best of rest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m Yie 1598/06C?C0 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m110y Gd 1642/07C?C0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16416/07C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Killarney?1st1st0
2026-07-02Limerick?4th4th0
2026-06-08Roscommon?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/062/0716/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
02/07/20264th9/488%57%-0.31
16/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11