2
Vardif
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Galorama (prix Paul Saulou) Stakes · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-09-11 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-08 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-06-01 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 1/10 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 05/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |