6
Aimant
8yo Gelding · 8-13
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Ouest Boissons (prix Sea Bird) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#4
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Le Mans | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Deauville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 79% | +0.63 |
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |