13
First Creation
8yo Gelding · 8-9
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Ouest Boissons (prix Sea Bird) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Cholet | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Machecoul | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 16
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 87% | +0.08 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.05 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |