15
Lella Desjy
6yo Mare · 8-7
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Ouest Boissons (prix Sea Bird) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Le Mans | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Pornichet | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Deauville | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Pornichet | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Deauville | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/12/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/12/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 08/01/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |
| 24/01/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.01 |
| 06/02/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 18/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |