7
Nicastro
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Ouest Boissons (prix Sea Bird) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#15
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-02-13 | Pornichet | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-01-24 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-01-07 | Pornichet | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-12-23 | Deauville | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2024-08-28 | Compiegne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2024 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 12/08/2024 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 28/08/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 23/12/2024 | 16th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/01/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 24/01/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/02/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |