3
Plumbago
6yo Gelding · 9-2
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Ouest Boissons (prix Sea Bird) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Angers | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 25/11/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 22/12/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 53% | -0.07 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 69% | +0.09 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |