12
Um Elnadim
9yo Mare · 8-10
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Ouest Boissons (prix Sea Bird) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Argentan | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Argentan | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 11/10/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 09/04/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |