2
Lempira
6yo Gelding · 9-6
Le Lion D'angers · Prix La Pomme De Pin - Restaurant-traiteur (prix D'andigne) Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#7
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Craon | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 15% | -0.58 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.09 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/07/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |