4
Bejar
5yo Filly · 9-4
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 03/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 29/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |