16
Blown By The Wind
4yo Filly · 8-8
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#12
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 18/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 15/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 05/06/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 16/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |