3
Cannello
10yo Gelding · 9-5
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Le Mans | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 02/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 14/06/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 28/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |