14
Great Charlie
8yo Gelding · 8-10
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#9
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chantilly | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Pornichet | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 03/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 19/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/06/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.41 |