12
Intention Borget
4yo Filly · 8-13
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Chateaubriant | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chantilly | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-19 | Pornichet | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 11/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 19/01/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 03/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |