7
Neyshapur
4yo Filly · 9-2
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Evreux | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 18/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 03/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 19/03/2026 | 16th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 15/05/2026 | 15th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |