15
Toogoodtoberood
4yo Gelding · 8-8
Le Lion D'angers · Prix Des Soirees Des Estivales Du Lion D'angers (prix Etienne Frachon) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#15
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Pornichet | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Pornichet | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Pornichet | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 19/01/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 27/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/05/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |