5
The Good Man
9yo Horse · 8-11 · OR 109
Le Lion D'angers · Prix De La Compagnie Equestre Icario (prix Vallees Du Haut Anjou) Stakes · 1m 6f 200y
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-06-13 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Compiegne | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/12/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 09/03/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |