3
Lumber Legacy
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 65
Monmouth Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 01/08/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |