6
Emily Reward
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 70
Monmouth Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |